Zero Chance of a Double-Dip ?

We suggest there is a zero percent chance of a double-dip recession, given that there is no evidence either empirical or official that the current recession begun in 2007 has ended.  In other words, we are still well within the first dip ergo no 2nd dip is currently possible.

Even the government admits as much.  See the right-hand side of the National Bureau of Economic Research wesbite - http://www.nber.org/  It shows the 1st dip is still underway, and is by far the worst recession of the past 80 years, even per the normally very rosy official stats :

Last Four Recessions and their Durations

12/07 - ?

3/01 - 11/01   8 months

7/90 - 3/91     8 months

7/81 - 11/82  16 months

Complete stats here - http://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html

But what of so many companies beating earnings estimates.  Does that signal a turn for the better? 

No.  It's very easy to cross the bar when the bar keeps being reset lower.  See here how the game is played :